01 · Economic OverviewUpdated 30 September 2026 · 5 min read

How Australia is tracking against its six economic objectives

The indicators behind each objective, why they moved, and what monetary, fiscal, microeconomic and labour-market policy is doing about it right now.

By RCF8 ResearchData: ABS, RBA, Treasury Budget 2026–27, Fair Work Commission, DCCEEW, Clean Energy Council

The 2026 oil shock has knocked Australia off course on two objectives and made the other four harder. Inflation is 3.5%, above the 2–3% target for a second year, and the RBA has answered with four rate rises to 4.60% — even as quarterly growth slows to 0.4% and unemployment climbs to 4.6%.

Dearer fuel imports have widened the current account deficit to 3.7% of GDP, real wages are falling again, and renewables keep taking a larger share of the grid even as the pipeline of new projects slows. Choose an objective below to see its indicators, the reasons they moved and the four policy levers.

The six objectives at a glance
Objective
Growth history →
Objective 01Slowing

Economic growth

Growth held up over 2025–26 on an investment boom, but it slowed sharply in the June quarter as fuel costs and rate rises squeezed households — and output per person is barely rising.

2.1%
0%Potential ≈ 2–2.5%5%
Real GDP growth, year to June

The indicators

IndicatorLatestContext
Real GDP growth2.1%Year to June qtr; 0.4% in the quarter
Real GDP, 2025–262.4%Financial year, up from 1.4%
GDP per person+0.8%Year to June; rising again
Business investment+10.4%Year to June; data centres, energy
Labour productivity−0.2%Output per hour, year to June

Why they changed

01

An investment boom. Data-centre and renewable-energy projects lifted business investment 10.4% over the year — the strongest driver of 2025–26 growth.

02

Households squeezed. Dearer fuel, four rate rises and falling real wages held household spending to 0.4% growth in the June quarter.

03

Population, not productivity. Growth has come mainly from more people and more hours worked; output per hour fell 0.2%, so living standards are barely improving.

What policy is doing

Current settings, and whether each one helps or hinders economic growth.

Monetary
Restrains

Four rises in 2026 took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.60%, the highest since 2011.

Dearer credit cuts consumption and investment; the RBA expects growth of only about 1.4% over 2026.

Fiscal
Supports

The 2026–27 Budget runs a $31.5 billion deficit (1.0% of GDP); Treasury forecasts 1.75% growth in 2026–27.

Spending on health, care and housing adds directly to aggregate demand.

Microeconomic reform
Supports

Productivity package: 497 more nuisance tariffs abolished from 1 July 2026, cuts to regulation costs, a revived National Competition Policy and $500 million for faster approvals.

Lower business costs and stronger competition lift productivity and potential growth over time.

Labour market reform
Supports

$85.2 million for faster skills assessments for migrant tradespeople, a revised migration points test and draft laws to ban most non-compete clauses.

More skilled workers and easier job-switching raise labour supply and productivity.

Policy mix

Which levers help which objective, right now

Monetary policy is fighting inflation, fiscal policy is still adding to demand, and micro and labour-market reforms work slowly on the supply side. Read across a row to see where the levers pull together — and where they pull apart.

ObjectiveMonetaryFiscalMicro reformLabour reform
RestrainsFour rises cool demandSupports$31.5b deficit adds demandSupportsTariff cuts, competitionSupportsSkills, mobility
SupportsMain tool against inflationMixedExcise cut, then restoredSupportsGas reservation from 2027Works against6% minimum-wage rise adds costs
RestrainsUnemployment to 4.7%SupportsHealth & care jobsSupportsFaster approvalsSupportsBetter job matching
MixedRate gap supports A$Works againstDeficit lowers savingSupportsCompetitiveness gainsMixedStudent caps cut exports
MixedBorrowers pay, savers gainSupportsCGT, negative gearing, offsetsSupportsHousing supplySupportsMinimum wage, non-competes
Works againstDearer capital for projectsSupportsCEFC, NRF, FMiASupportsSafeguard MechanismSupportsTrades for the transition

The three trade-offs to watch

Inflation vs jobs

Tightening brings inflation back toward 2–3% but lifts unemployment toward 4.7% — the short-run Phillips-curve trade-off.

Monetary vs fiscal

The RBA is raising rates while the Budget runs a $31.5 billion deficit. The two arms pull in opposite directions, so rates must do more of the work.

Rates vs the energy transition

Higher borrowing costs slow capital-heavy wind, solar and storage projects just as the 2030 targets need them to speed up.